Risk Management

We usually assume that disasters happen to other people. Sometimes that leads us to underestimate the real risks, even of everyday activities such as driving. Jen's diagnosis with breast cancer and subsequent death has shaken up my sense of risk. Emotionally it seems much more likely that bad things could happen to people that I care about. Perhaps this will diminish a bit over time, although I've noticed that older people tend to have a stronger sense of the vulnerability of life, as they've seen more evidence of what can happen.

One risk that has sadly increased greatly is the chance that the boys will be left without a surviving parent. If that sounds unusually pessimistic, look at it like this: the annual chance of death for women of Jen's age are a bit under 1 in 1000, and for men of my age, a little higher, about 1 in 700. If the events are independent (roughly meaning that the events aren't connected), then the chance of both of us dying in one year (and the boys losing both parents) is about 1 in 700,000. Of course it's more likely than that, since some accidents (e.g. car crashes) might involve both of us. But now Jen is dead, and so the chances of the boys being without both of us are about 1 in 700 per year.

How do I respond to this? I do try to drive even more carefully, and try to avoid alcohol completely when I might be on the road. However a quick look at the major risks of death shows that ischaemic heart disease is the leading cause for men and women, with strokes and lung cancer also prominent. So diet and exercise feature prominently on my agenda, hence the goal of running 1000km this year (I'm up to about 875 km, so I should make that easily). Of course fit and apparently healthy people die from heart disease, as happened in January to someone I knew in Canberra, so I know it's not a guarantee - it just increases my chances of surviving.

However another side of death is that it underlines the uncertainty of the future. All the vague plans I have for 'some day' might not happen at all - indeed, all the things that Jen and I had thought we'd do together when we had more time. So in contrast to the increased caution, I also have a strong desire to 'seize the day'. One aspect of that is not to postpone opportunities indefinitely. I have to rein this in at times, since it can take me too far out of my natural zone of caution. The other aspect is to remember to communicate love to people I care about now, rather than imaging there'll be some future opportunity. As I wrote a while ago, what matters most are not the last words I say to someone, but the words I say to them every time we meet.